I have mentioned that you probably want to save cash now because the stock market to GDP is at its highest point, basically ever. It’s scary high. But here are the facts you need to know.
You do not need to sell your existing stock holdings
I believe there is time before a big decline in the stock market of 20 – 30%. In the mean time there is money to make. Generally you want to always stay invested in your best holdings even when they are down, because you don’t (and nobody else) knows when things turn around. And usually that bounce is pretty big. You don’t want to miss it.
So if I’m not talking about selling stock to build cash, what am I talking about?
If you’re like me, you set aside money on a daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly basis to invest. Rather than investing it, save the cash.
What to do with the cash you save
Should you stick money under your mattress? In a safe? Putting your money in an FDIC insured savings account is your best bet. But find one that pays a really good rate, like 4%. With interest rates going down, there may be fewer and fewer of these accounts around in the future. And 4% is getting close to the inflation rate. Do your best, even if you lose a little money to inflation.
Would Gold, Silver, or Bitcoin be good ways to save cash?
Generally you should save where you have good liquidity and where your principle is safe. To me that means if you save $100 and need to take the $100 back out for any reason into the future you should be able to. These three would be liquid (easy to sell) but there is a chance of losing some of your $100. Say a month later you could withdraw $95.
How about bonds?
With Ibonds or EE bonds, you would have to wait for a year to withdraw, but you would always have your original investment after that. Any other bonds you could lose some of your original investment (i.e. principle) but they would be easily sold at any time.
How much cash should be saved?
How much can you save? Let’s say you have $100,000 saved in retirement accounts. If you could save an additional $50,000 in cash, that would be a good start.
How much time do we have until a significant market downturn?
We are playing in extra innings right now. But I’m guessing we have until at least the tech companies spend all they can on AI infrastructure. Maybe 2+ years? But it could happen at any time.
Once the market loses 30%, how much time is there to start buying depressed shares?
A recession tends to last several months with a market bottom coming weeks after the selling starts. I’m guessing a handful of months should go by before you start buying. Like 5-6.
Note that a recession relates to the economy. When the economy declines, that is a recession. The stock market is ownership in companies that are tied to the economy. When the economy does well, stocks do well and vise versa.
Is there any guarantee that this kind of market decline will ever happen?
Nope. But it will.
Is there any guarantee that the market will ever regain it’s losses?
Nope. But it will.
If somebody told you in 1927 that “They know nothing!” and you sold all your stocks then bought them back in the early 1930’s, you would have been a very rich person in a short amount of time.
Does that mean that following this plan will make a person rich?
Technically, it’ll lower your “basis” for the good stocks you buy. The basis is the price where you buy a stock. The market will re-inflate at some point creating a pretty decent profit in a reasonably quick amount of time. Whether or not you “become rich” is subjective, but it will be a really good time to make substantial money.
What if it’s years before the market takes a 20-30% hit?
That’s why you don’t sell what you already have. I think it’s super unlikely we will go through the next 5 years without a big chunk being taken out of the market.
Having some cash to invest is always a good thing. It just looks like a really good time to build your cash pile.
What am I doing with my cash?
The bulk of my cash savings is going into I-bonds and high yield savings accounts. I’m saving more than I’ll need for emergencies (in theory) so I don’t expect to need the cash soon. I can wait the year.
I also know that interest rates are coming down, so I have a chunk in a triple ETF of bonds (TMF). I figure it’s a good hedge for stocks.