I am not a “trader”, I am an “investor” so typically I buy and hold individual stocks. Let’s say though that I invest in QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and over 10 years it averages 18% per year. If I invest in another ETF that also averages 18%, what is my total return? 18%. Why? Because ta * yr = (ta*.5 +ta*.5) * yr. ta is total amount and yr is yearly return. btw… half of total amount + half of total amount is the total amount so both sides are equal.
Let’s say that the ETFs move in opposite directions… well that would be ta*.5*yr + ta*.5*-yr, which yes would equal zero (does it? – it should). So two investments that move the same distance in opposite directions is zero return. Well yes and no. If you invest in both funds equally and do nothing else, you will have the same amount at the end and have 0% return (the total would not grow), but if you take half of the difference monthly and sell the bigger one and buy the smaller one you would lower your basis. In other words, your original stock price would become lower and you’ve made more money.
I don’t even know how to quantify this except to say you don’t want to be short and long the same investment at the same time. That’s the only way you can know that two investments will move the same distance in opposite directions. Your total gain is minimal. But it is a positive number.
What I do instead, for those of you more than 5 years from retirement, is invest in ETFs that are triple indexes. For instance, TQQQ is triple the QQQ. UPRO is triple SPY. TMF is triple 20+ year dated treasury bonds. In the short run you could gain tons or lose tons. But in the long run this pure combination makes about 30%.
If you already know what I’m talking about, you are probably screaming at me now. UPRO is triple the S&P during a single day and resets for the next day. Same for TQQQ or TMF. What’s the risk? I think the real risk is if any of the funds zero out. But I’ve also heard that because these funds reset daily, you lose a little bit on an up and down market. True or false. True but I don’t believe it matters. Getting around 30% more or less is pretty good for a well diversified trio.
Back to my point about zeroing out: TQQQ is the only one of the three that potentially could go to a zero during a serious drop in the market. But we want this fund in our investment because it’s portion can earn 60% or more yearly. Without it the total investment if fairly mediocre. I like 70% UPRO, 20% TQQQ, and 10% TMF.
TMF is an ETF that doesn’t gain much unless interest rates are going down, but it does typically move inversely to stocks. So you can take your trio and rebalance it monthly… you get a bit higher return because of selling shares that are up and buying shares that are down. Especially if the down or up is big, the TMF will mean that you’re buying TQQQ at a very low price by rebalancing, or selling TQQQ at a very high price.
With only 20% TQQQ, your odds of losing everything goes to near zero. Because UPRO and TMF will still be there.
I’ve talked about this trio of ETFs before and I do invest for my kids using it. The three funds don’t pay a ton of dividends and I don’t rebalance the fund… but I will buy more of whatever is down on a yearly basis. So tax wise it is pretty decent.
Most of everything else I invest with are in Roth IRAs and Roth 401Ks so there’s not tax issue there.
I would tell you to leave me a comment telling me what you think… but I’ve disabled comments for now. Just talk amongst yourselves.